The CFGI Strategic Series
Driving value creation in a warming market, AI disruption, and continued macro uncertainty.
CFO confidence has reached its highest level in four years. According to a recent cross-industry Deloitte survey of 200 CFOs at North American companies with at least $1 billion in revenue, optimism in the market is higher than a year ago. Nearly 60% of CFOs say now is a good time to take greater risks, up dramatically from 36% just a quarter ago.
But most organizations aren't yet set up to execute at that pace: nearly two-thirds have not yet scaled AI beyond pilots, and only ~39% report enterprise-level EBITDA impact from AI to date. Substantial risks and uncertainties still exist. The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risks Report, based on the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) which surveyed 900 global leaders along with 100 thematic experts, places geoeconomic confrontation as the top global risk, with half of respondents expecting turbulent conditions ahead. Interest rates remain elevated at 3.5–3.75%, with only modest relief expected.
The most successful finance leaders in 2026 will be those who balance bold action with disciplined execution, seizing the M&A window, scaling AI past pilots, and building resilience against an increasingly fragmented global order.
The transaction market roared back in 2025, with global deal value surging 40% to $4.9 trillion. But as capital markets teams know, market windows tend to open slowly and close quickly. Look no further than the sluggish IPO markets of 2022–2024 or the rapid disruption caused by tariff announcements in Q2 of 2025.
Whether targeting an IPO or a strategic acquisition, the window of opportunity is narrow. 63% of CFOs report greater transaction interest than a year ago, but macro-volatility—from interest rates to supply chain shifts—means that only the prepared will capitalize. In diligence, slow closes are now read as control risk: top-quartile finance teams are closing in ~4-5 days, while the bottom quartile still lags at 10+.
Beyond standard financials, AI readiness has become a central factor in deal evaluation. Acquirers and investors are now scrutinizing AI strategies and technical debt like never before. According to Bain's 2026 M&A Report, one in five strategic acquirers report walking away from a deal due to concerns about a target's AI vulnerabilities. It is no longer just a tool for efficiency; it is a valuation driver.
CFGI Perspective: Treat transaction readiness as a standing operating capability. Do not wait for a Letter of Intent to start cleaning up your books. Target a ≤5 day monthly close, keep reconciliations current, and maintain an "always-on" data room. Because regulatory windows and market sentiment can shift overnight, CFOs should assume they are always 6–8 months from a potential transaction.
Conduct a "Readiness Audit" now. Identify gaps in financial reporting, data room documentation, and AI governance immediately. The organizations that can move fastest when the window cracks open will capture the outsized returns.
The pilot phase is over. According to Deloitte, 54% of CFOs now cite "integrating AI agents into operations" as a top 2026 priority, not experimenting with AI, but embedding it into core workflows. KPMG's Global Tech Report shows over 50% of organizations plan to explore AI agents within the next three years.
Yet there's a significant execution gap. While 87% of CFOs say AI will be critical, Gartner's 2026 CFO Agenda reveals only 36% feel confident in their ability to actually drive AI impact. The root cause isn't the technology, it's the scaffolding around it. Many organizations lack clear governance frameworks, defined accountability structures, and adequate training programs. Deploying AI agents without robust controls creates risk, and deploying them without training creates frustration. This disconnect, between recognizing AI's importance and building the infrastructure to capture its value, defines the challenge ahead.
Across scaled programs, the biggest driver of AI ROI is workflow redesign, not model choice, showing the strongest correlation with EBITDA impact. Yet only about one in five organizations using genAI have actually redesigned workflows, which explains inconsistent returns. Organizations that simply layer AI onto existing processes see minimal returns. Those that fundamentally rethink how work gets done, using AI as the catalyst, capture transformational gains.
The conversation is shifting from "AI tools" to "AI agents"—systems that can take autonomous action, not just provide recommendations. This represents a fundamental change in how finance functions operate. The CFO's role increasingly involves orchestrating human-AI teams rather than managing purely human workforces. On complex enterprise tasks, agents succeeded on the first try only ~24% of the time; reliability improves materially only with human-in-the-loop controls.
CFGI Perspective: The AI confidence gap represents both risk and opportunity. CFOs who focus on workflow transformation, not just technology adoption, will pull ahead. Start with the processes that matter most: financial close, forecasting, and transaction support.
Identify your top three "workflow transformation" candidates—processes where AI could fundamentally change how work gets done, not just automate existing steps. Build business cases that quantify the workflow redesign opportunity, not just the technology cost.
Private equity faces a mathematics problem. With 31,000 companies in PE portfolios, representing $3.7 trillion in unrealized value, and the 2017 vintage now entering its ninth year, the pressure to exit has never been greater. But the traditional playbook no longer works.
According to PwC's Private Equity Outlook, PE firms now need to achieve significantly greater enterprise value creation through operational improvement. Financial engineering and multiple expansion can no longer carry the weight. The firms that thrive will be those that drive genuine operational improvement and commercial acceleration.
Platform buyouts have become the dominant PE strategy: acquire a platform company, then execute multiple tuck-in acquisitions to build scale. This requires sophisticated integration capabilities, an area where many portfolio companies remain underdeveloped.
CFGI Perspective: CFOs must shift from "financial steward" to "value creation architect." This means owning the commercial growth agenda, driving operational efficiency, and maintaining constant exit readiness, often simultaneously.
Build a 100-day value creation plan that goes beyond cost reduction. Focus on commercial acceleration (pricing, sales effectiveness, customer retention) and operational excellence (process automation, working capital optimization). Document the value creation story as you execute—you'll need it for exit.
The regulatory environment has entered a period of sustained complexity. Economic risks surged in the World Economic Forum's GRPS rankings—recession concerns jumped eight positions, inflation rose eight positions, and asset bubble worries climbed seven positions. Add potential tax reform, Pillar Two global minimum tax implementation, and evolving tariff policy, and CFOs face a regulatory environment unlike any in recent memory.
PwC's 2026 Tax Policy Outlook highlights the potential for significant tax legislation. Whether through the reconciliation process or broader reform, CFOs should prepare for scenarios ranging from rate changes to fundamental structural shifts. The OECD's Pillar Two, establishing a 15% global minimum tax, continues implementation, affecting multinational structures.
Tariffs have evolved from crisis response to structural feature of the global economy. PwC's analysis suggests that regardless of administration changes, some form of tariff policy will remain. This requires CFOs to build supply chain resilience and tariff scenario planning into standard operations, not treat it as a temporary disruption.
CFGI Perspective: Regulatory complexity is the new normal. Build compliance capabilities that can adapt quickly. The days of stable, multi-year planning horizons are behind us. Scenario planning should be quarterly, not annual.
Develop a "regulatory readiness matrix" covering tax reform scenarios, Pillar Two impact, tariff exposure, and ESG reporting requirements. Assign owners, establish monitoring triggers, and build response playbooks for each scenario.
Annual static planning breaks under volatility; the issue isn't forecast accuracy alone, it's the speed to update and reallocate. With geoeconomic confrontation as the top global risk, half of experts predicting turbulent conditions, and economic indicators showing increased volatility, CFOs need planning capabilities that can adapt in real time. Driver-based planning links forecasts to operational drivers (volume, price, capacity) so models update as drivers move, and materially improve responsiveness.
Gartner's 2026 CFO Agenda shows 51% of CFOs prioritizing improved forecast accuracy, second only to cost optimization. But accuracy alone isn't sufficient. The goal is adaptive planning that can quickly incorporate new information and adjust resource allocation accordingly.
Interest rates remain elevated at 3.5–3.75%, with only one to two modest cuts expected in 2026. Adding complexity: Fed Chair Powell's term expires in May 2026, potentially bringing policy philosophy shifts. CFOs should model multiple interest rate and monetary policy scenarios.
CFGI Perspective: The planning function needs to become a strategic asset, not an administrative burden. Invest in scenario modeling capabilities, driver-based forecasting, and real-time performance monitoring. CFOs who can quickly answer "what if?" questions will have a significant advantage.
Transition from annual budgeting to rolling forecasts with monthly or quarterly updates. Build driver-based models that can quickly incorporate changes in key assumptions (rates, tariffs, demand). Create a "scenario library" of pre-built models for common disruption scenarios and refresh it on a rolling basis; the advantage is answering "what if?" quickly, not having a perfect base case.
The workforce question has shifted from "will AI replace jobs?" to "how do we orchestrate human-AI teams effectively?" McKinsey's workforce research shows demand for AI fluency has grown 7x since 2023. But this isn't about hiring AI specialists—it's about embedding AI capabilities across the entire finance function.
Deloitte's CFO Signals survey reveals 49% of CFOs prioritize "automating processes to free people for higher-value work." Adoption sticks when teams are trained and involved. The goal isn't headcount reduction but capability elevation—moving finance professionals from transaction processing to strategic analysis and decision support.
Perhaps the most significant shift is in management itself. Managers will increasingly orchestrate human-AI collaboration rather than simply managing human teams. This requires new competencies: understanding AI capabilities and limitations, designing effective human-AI workflows, and maintaining accountability in automated processes.
CFGI Perspective: The skills evolution is real, but the framing matters. Position AI adoption as capability amplification, not job displacement. The organizations that get workforce transformation right will have a significant competitive advantage in attracting and retaining talent.
Map your finance function's current skill distribution against the "workforce of tomorrow" requirements. Identify skill gaps, build training pathways, and create rotation opportunities that expose team members to AI-augmented work. Start with your highest-potential people.
Operationalizing Strategy
Foundational approaches for CFOs navigating 2026's complexity
In a world of competing demands, clarity is competitive advantage. Ruthlessly prioritize the initiatives that will drive the most value and communicate those priorities consistently to align organizational effort.
Strong governance enables speed, not bureaucracy. Build frameworks that create confidence among boards, investors, and regulators—enabling faster decision-making when opportunities or risks emerge.
AI transformation, transaction readiness, and dynamic planning all depend on strong operational foundations. Invest in data quality, process standardization, and systems integration now—they're prerequisites for everything else.
Static plans break in volatile environments. Build organizational capabilities that can sense change quickly, evaluate options rapidly, and execute pivots effectively. Flexibility is the new resilience.
Technology amplifies talent. It doesn't replace it. Build AI fluency across the finance function, consult employees during transformation initiatives, and create clear pathways for skill development. Organizations that get workforce transformation right will have a lasting competitive advantage.
The most successful finance leaders in 2026 will be those who balance bold action with disciplined execution.
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